Abstract: This article examines the trends and patterns of returns to college education in Hong Kong in the context of educational expansion. Using the data from nine waves of population censuses/by-censuses from 1976 to 2016, we employ age–period–cohort models to investigate the trends in college wage premium in Hong Kong. The descriptive statistics show that, for those aged 22–26, college wage premium declined over time. In addition, there are substantial variations in college wage premiums among different birth cohorts, which cannot be explained by age and period main effects. More specifically, college wage premiums declined almost monotonically for those born after 1950, and two younger birth cohorts (1975–1979 and 1980–1984) experienced cumulative disadvantage in terms of the college premium over the life course. We discuss social and political ramifications of these findings.

Key words: Education, Hong Kong, college premium, Hong Kong census, youth